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The extent to which something is likely to happen or be the case.
In this series, we showed that arguments are attempts to persuade people to act or believe something. The strongest arguments are sound arguments. Sound arguments are supported with reasons that are truthful and logically lead to the conclusion.
Sometimes, however, the conclusion of an argument is not definite. Instead, the argument is based on probabilities – or a likelihood that something may or may not occur. In this case, we must use correct language to ensure that our conclusion is true. In terms of critical thinking, this is called making the argument ‘forceful’.
Let’s do an example:
A worker is late three out of every five days, and the business owner says, ‘you are always late for work’. The statement is clearly untrue. The worker is not ‘always’ late. The term ‘always’ means they are never on time.
Instead, an accurate claim would be, ‘you were late three out of five days this week’ (literally accurate) or ‘you are regularly late’ or ‘you have a habit of being late’ (not literal but still true).
It’s important to use language of probability to maintain legitimacy, strengthen your arguments and prevent your aims from being undermined. In this example, the owner aims to address the worker’s lateness, and encourage a change in behaviour. However, the inaccuracy of the owner’s statement makes it easy for the worker to create a diversion away from the aim, and instead, the conversation may switch into an argument about the accuracy of what the owner said. The owner could then be left with a more disgruntled worker and no change in behaviour.
The point is, we should be very careful about using words that portray definitive values, such as ‘always’, ‘never’, ‘cannot’. It may undermine your argument and turn people off. Instead, try to use phrases of probability like ‘sometimes’, ‘possibly’, ‘rarely’.
Below are more examples of definitive phrases and phrases of probability. You will note the phrases depicting probability do so in varying degrees.
See if you can think of more!
Probability is all about math. Phrases of probability can have associated numerical percentages, either real or perceived. For example, ‘certain’ is 100%, while ‘impossible’ is 0%. The term ‘probable’ means more likely than not, or greater than a 50% chance. While this technically includes anything from 51% to below certain (100%), phrases of probability can help make your statements be more accurate. For example, ‘usually’ can mean something different for everyone, but it sits somewhere in the 70-90% range. Using accurate phrases of possibility will strengthen your argument.
While accuracy is important however, phrases depicting probability, such as ‘likely’ or ‘unlikely’, can be more ‘forceful’ than using accurate numerical values. You may have heard people make statements using percentages, such as, ‘Newcastle has a mere five per cent chance of winning their next game!’ But how would they know this? Providing a specific numeric value requires analysis of all the relevant factors that may affect the outcome. Unless you’re a rugby analyst, you would be unlikely to have all this information required to make this statement. You therefore might come off a bit silly! Instead, the argument would carry more force by saying, 'It's highly unlikely Newcastle will win the next game.’
Understanding the full context of any situation is crucial to understanding the probability of a relevant event. For example, let’s say a man called ‘Gary’ had been charged with an assault that occurred at a pub. Gary has already recently assaulted someone in the pub, and had only been in that pub four times in the past six months. This means an assault had occurred two out of the four times he’d been in that pub, or 50% chance. There is therefore currently a ‘probable’ risk that Gary would commit assault again if he were to go to that pub.
However, a man we shall call ‘Shane’ was also involved in this assault in the pub. Shane had gone to this pub at least twice a week for the past 20 years. He has a previous assault charge in this pub, but from 10 years ago. While Shane therefore has had two assaults in that pub, he had been there on over 2,000 occasions (calculating at twice per week, 52 weeks over 20 years). The probability in this case is one incident in 1000 attendances. Based on this circumstance alone (there would be other factors at play!), he is at a much lower risk of being involved in an incident than Gary.
We have touched on the surface of the complex topic of reasoning with probability. See if you can identify examples in your claims or other people’s claims relating to probability, and analyse the words used to describe the probability of an event to determine if different language could be used to increase the force of the statement!
In this series, we showed that arguments are attempts to persuade people to act or believe something. The strongest arguments are sound arguments. Sound arguments are supported with reasons that are truthful and logically lead to the conclusion.
Sometimes, however, the conclusion of an argument is not definite. Instead, the argument is based on probabilities – or a likelihood that something may or may not occur. In this case, we must use correct language to ensure that our conclusion is true. In terms of critical thinking, this is called making the argument ‘forceful’.
Let’s do an example:
A worker is late three out of every five days, and the business owner says, ‘you are always late for work’. The statement is clearly untrue. The worker is not ‘always’ late. The term ‘always’ means they are never on time.
Instead, an accurate claim would be, ‘you were late three out of five days this week’ (literally accurate) or ‘you are regularly late’ or ‘you have a habit of being late’ (not literal but still true).
It’s important to use language of probability to maintain legitimacy, strengthen your arguments and prevent your aims from being undermined. In this example, the owner aims to address the worker’s lateness, and encourage a change in behaviour. However, the inaccuracy of the owner’s statement makes it easy for the worker to create a diversion away from the aim, and instead, the conversation may switch into an argument about the accuracy of what the owner said. The owner could then be left with a more disgruntled worker and no change in behaviour.
The point is, we should be very careful about using words that portray definitive values, such as ‘always’, ‘never’, ‘cannot’. It may undermine your argument and turn people off. Instead, try to use phrases of probability like ‘sometimes’, ‘possibly’, ‘rarely’.
Below are more examples of definitive phrases and phrases of probability. You will note the phrases depicting probability do so in varying degrees.
See if you can think of more!
Probability is all about math. Phrases of probability can have associated numerical percentages, either real or perceived. For example, ‘certain’ is 100%, while ‘impossible’ is 0%. The term ‘probable’ means more likely than not, or greater than a 50% chance. While this technically includes anything from 51% to below certain (100%), phrases of probability can help make your statements be more accurate. For example, ‘usually’ can mean something different for everyone, but it sits somewhere in the 70-90% range. Using accurate phrases of possibility will strengthen your argument.
While accuracy is important however, phrases depicting probability, such as ‘likely’ or ‘unlikely’, can be more ‘forceful’ than using accurate numerical values. You may have heard people make statements using percentages, such as, ‘Newcastle has a mere five per cent chance of winning their next game!’ But how would they know this? Providing a specific numeric value requires analysis of all the relevant factors that may affect the outcome. Unless you’re a rugby analyst, you would be unlikely to have all this information required to make this statement. You therefore might come off a bit silly! Instead, the argument would carry more force by saying, 'It's highly unlikely Newcastle will win the next game.’
Understanding the full context of any situation is crucial to understanding the probability of a relevant event. For example, let’s say a man called ‘Gary’ had been charged with an assault that occurred at a pub. Gary has already recently assaulted someone in the pub, and had only been in that pub four times in the past six months. This means an assault had occurred two out of the four times he’d been in that pub, or 50% chance. There is therefore currently a ‘probable’ risk that Gary would commit assault again if he were to go to that pub.
However, a man we shall call ‘Shane’ was also involved in this assault in the pub. Shane had gone to this pub at least twice a week for the past 20 years. He has a previous assault charge in this pub, but from 10 years ago. While Shane therefore has had two assaults in that pub, he had been there on over 2,000 occasions (calculating at twice per week, 52 weeks over 20 years). The probability in this case is one incident in 1000 attendances. Based on this circumstance alone (there would be other factors at play!), he is at a much lower risk of being involved in an incident than Gary.
We have touched on the surface of the complex topic of reasoning with probability. See if you can identify examples in your claims or other people’s claims relating to probability, and analyse the words used to describe the probability of an event to determine if different language could be used to increase the force of the statement!
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